Optimal control analysis of bluetongue virus transmission in patchy environments connected by host and wind-aided midge movements

TitleOptimal control analysis of bluetongue virus transmission in patchy environments connected by host and wind-aided midge movements
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2021
AuthorsMugabi, F, Duffy, KJ, Mugisha, JYT, Collins, OC
Date Published22 July 2021
KeywordsBluetongue virus · Multi-patch · Control strategies · Optimal control theory · Cost-effective
Abstract

Bluetongue, a midge-borne disease of ruminants caused by the bluetongue virus (BTV) can rapidly spread from one region (patch) to another by host and/or midge move- ments, making its control difficult. A multi-patch deterministic model for BTV is formulated and analysed to evaluate the effectiveness of vaccination, quarantine, insec- ticide spraying and the use of repellent control strategies in reducing the within and between-patches transmission. By using optimal control theory, the effectiveness of these strategies is established. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios are calculated to determine the most cost-effective strategy. In a single patch, vaccination, insecticide spraying and the use of repellents are all highly effective in minimising transmission, but the most cost-effective is vaccination. In patches connected by host and midge movements, if any of these controls is applied in a high-risk patch, a disease-free status is achieved in both patches, but if implemented in a low-risk patch, it is not attained in any patch. If hosts and midges move, quarantine has no effect, but for no midge movement, the effect can be large in a low-risk patch if it’s internally imposed.

DOI10.1007/s12190-021-01596-9